” A Prelude to the Great 2020 U.S. Presidential Election ” – March 12, 2019.
Power struggle and competition for 2020 is shaping on the U.S. Presidential Electoral horizon. The ensuing Presidential Election may well be a game changer for the U.S. in striking a new path of governance, and for striking a new chord with allies and foes within and outside.
Donlald Trump in all probability will be seeking a second term on the Republican side even while the Democrats emboldened by the outcome of mid term election in 2018 ( a clear sweep ) are willing to go the whole hog to deny the second term feather in Donald Trump’s cap.
Here is presenting a short preliminary picture from this common man with commonsense perspective :
1. Republican(s) – Donald Trump as candidate :
(a) Strength : Economy and Job front have remained fairly strong until now ; Tax reforms have been perceived favourably in general ; and ‘nationalism’ has been valued as a good quality justly. Does this seem enough to justify reelection is something worrying .
(b) Weakness. : Donald Trump is seen as leading an absolute government run by his own creation of ideas little subjected to established norms of governance. He stays determined and resolute in appealing strongly to the passions of a section of his staunch supporters holding the authority arising from his office without any constraint. He is also viewed as harsh and inhospitable to specially the minorities, a sign of lacking moral or mental strength essential for a World Leader. Will citizens see a correction before the election is puzzling.
(c) Opportunities : Strengthening his safety, security and stability map in the border areas; Striving for harmony and unison within his party on contentious issues ; Tackling Global Terrorism, Climate Change, and Healthcare with compromise and ‘give and take’ strategic measures – are three of the strong cards that Donald Trump holds where concrete advances can help project his image better. A successful third Summit Meeting with genuine commitment to denuclearization from Chairman Kim Jong Un, North Korea, could also boost his image. A successful trade deal with China even seemingly profitable to U.S. interests , and a successful ‘U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal’ approved and signed by the Congress could also boost his image. Donald Trump has a few aces up his sleeve.
(d) Threats : Donald Trump may well have overstayed his welcome in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Florida that he pocketed in 2016. Preserving the states won with narrow margins is an arduous task in the face of multiple challenges and investigations into the wrongdoings in the past in terms of business, other organizations and trusts, and character. In essence, he will be fighting a new battle on his personal front impacting the minds of voters who will get sufficient time to decode and understand the gravity of the tangles. It must, however, be recognized that reelection of a segment of his party candidates also rests on his shoulders. A hard task, anyway.
2. Democrat(s) : Many candidates :
(a) Strength : Emboldening elixir from the mid term election success ; new found vigour and energy from diverse aspirants ; the choice of path they are likely to pursue with a clear agenda on infrastructure, immigration reforms, law enforcement, education, health, energy, and trade ; ardent desire to correct the wrongs in governance and society ; highest degree of morality and civility in Leadership. – are what will guide the Democrats in combating the Trump challenge in 2020.
(b) Weakness : Not being able to showcase a winnable leader despite projecting a crowded primary field ; Not having carried out any transformative or excellent program in recent years deserving special value to the citizens or to the government ; Prospects of a “competitive split” among candidates working to stymie the consensus voice in the party – the three weaknesses that the party needs to overcome at this juncture. Not impossible.
(c) Opportunities : Lack of humility, responsibility, and understanding in the present administration triggering the mood of citizens for a change in Leadership ; The ever growing volume and intensity of investigations into the business, organizations, and trusts of Donald Trump combining to make a rod for his own back impacting personal credibility, confidence, and character ; Morale boosting success earned in the mid term Elections (2018) reinvigorating the spirit and drive of Democratic Party functionaries and cadre – are the three opportunities that can work to deliver the lost power and prestige.
(d) Threats : A crowded primary debates and discussions schedule opening the chinks in every candidate’s armour producing fodder to the opponent party to counter the points easily when and where needed ; Any wrong behaviour cum attitudes displayed, any mentally and politically imperfect words uttered or tweeted, any program without material substance conceived or floated in sheer excitement – all by any overly enthused freshman capable of causing ripples in the calm waters of the experienced within the party ; Any attempt to overplay and overstretch the personal challenges of the opposition party candidate at the cost of envisaged constructive programs for the society – are the three likely Threats to the Democrats as at present. This can be overcome.
We’ll have to wait and see what happens next.
“Dieu avec nous”
Tuesday, March 12, 2019 – 3.39 p.m. (IST).
Tidbit : ” Sometimes an election throws up an absurd candidate to power and it becomes a joke’some government “.