From G-20 Summit in Japan to the DMZ and meeting Kim Jong Un in “Truce Village” on the border has been “historic” – no less than the ‘historic’ Election of Donald Trump as US President himself. This marks more than just a special credit to be the first sitting US President to visit the DMZ, an event that America, South Korea, North Korea, Kim Jong Un, and President Donald Trump himself will be extremely proud of.
The meeting lasted for an hour.
A summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in June 2018 in Singapore ; a second summit meeting in February 2019 in Hanoi, Vietnam ; and now a third meeting on June 30, 2019, in DMZ – all signify progress in a way signalling the change in relationship between the two unpredictable leaders. It appears that President Donald Trump’s efforts seem to be overshadowing the earlier diplomatic relationships of 1994 and 2003 – a big positive.
” It is a great day for the World ; and it is an honour for me to be here ; a lot of great things are happening ” – President Donald Trump said about his meeting with Kim Jong Un.
President Donald Trump also described the relationship between US and North Korea as “very, very dangerous” before he took Office as President.
” Good to see you again ; I never expected to meet you at this place ” – Kim Jong Un, North Korea, said about the meeting.
1. Even while North Korea pursued its missile launching program after the Hanoi summit between the two leaders, the present meeting comes as a pleasant change in relationship between the two unpredictable leaders.
2. While the analysts may be discepting whether this meeting will lead to a third summit meeting between the two leaders, the sign of that unveiling itself is getting really strong.
3. Quite significant is the fact that the word ‘denuclearisation’ has not been heard anytime during the entire event is what may have perplexed many.
4. Aides on both sides will be motivated to work because of the importance that it has achieved now can be the first outcome.
5. This will also be likely the “third time lucky” scenario fructifying the long winded diplomatic efforts, and finding to close the large gap existing in expectations of the two leaders.
What can be the real progress then ?
To resume further negotiations between the two countries ; to take relationships to a new level ; and to discuss denuclearisation of North Korea, and some relaxation of sanctions by the USA.
‘Something that has not been accomplished previously by anyone’ – may well be the final say.
” Dieu avec nous”
Sunday, June 30, 2019 – 5.49 p.m. (IST)
Tidbit : ” Big moment, tremendous progress” – President Donald Trump.
President Donald Trump launched his Campaign for 2020 with a big rally as the ‘launcher’ ; in Amway Center, Orlando, Florida, as the ‘launching pad’ ; quite spiritedly, enthusiastically, and even venturesomely ( amid his low rates of popularity vs four Democrats in Florida, polls Quinnipiac released just) with the occasion witnessing a nearly filled arena.
President Donald Trump claimed Florida as his second home and State from where exactly 4 years ago this week he first announced his candidacy for the 2016 election, a pleasant coincidence.
The points that President Donald Trump advanced in his 40 minute speech are :
1. 2016 was a defining moment in history. His government stared down the line of lobbyists and other clingers in Washington DC.
2. Economy now is thriving, prospering, booming, and soaring to new highs. American economy is the envy of the world.
3. Nobody has been tougher than he has been during his reign uptil now.
4. There has been no Collusion, no obstruction. ( Ref to Mueller Report ).
5. We got rid of individual mandate of Obamacare. (Ref benefits to citizens ).
6. US has the lowest employment rate now. ( an accomplishment ).
7. Tariffs on China is working (reassurance on US economy being strong).
8. Democrats want US splintered and divided (a political charge against opponents).
9. American dream is bigger and stronger than ever before ( morale boost to citizens ).
General conclusions :
(a) The rally speech, if anything, gave an indication that President Donald Trump will stick firmly to his proven prescriptions that catapulted him to power in 2016 rather than attempting to strike a new chord with voters in terms of the economic advancements made during his term uptil now.
Figure below represents President Donald Trump’s winning formula in 2016 Election :
(b) ” Building a wall in the Southern Border, Draining the swamp in Washington DC , and fake news categorization of the media ” constituted his election prescriptions and methods for achieving his goal of Presidency in 2016. The same recipe will likely continue this time too.
(c) In trying to give a definitive and concrete slogan for his vision this time, President Donald Trump invited the crowd to vote by cheers their preference for “Make America Great Again ” or ” Keep America Great “. The crowd voted with their loud and big cheers for the second – ” Keep America Great ” which may well become his slogan this time.
Only the polls in 2020 will show if this holds.
” Dieu avec nous “
Wednesday, June 19, 2019 – 8.09 a.m. (IST)
Tidbit : ” If you can make a better claptrap people will beat a path to your door “.
President Donald Trump’s tweets, aimed at reassuring and enhancing the confidence of citizens of a well managed economy sustaining the growth pattern, have been the apt feed for the news channels engaged in analysis of impact and consequences – short term and long term. Reactions – positive and negative, in good earnest or gravely capricious, realistic or Imaginative – influence not just the stock market swings but also the perceptions of the citizens shaping their opinion on Leadership. The discussions in print and electronic media often reach a maximum evoking emotions among the analysts, stakeholders, and the citizens considerably. Result is a market volatility mostly characterised by short term gains with long term unpredictability. This is followed by another set of tweets by the President justifying or otherwise the market behavior and this cycle of activities continues as the movement of events in a story.
The figure below represents the above detailed vicious circle of events succinctly.
The above sequence of events help the President in two ways : (1) It helps to keep the President harping on the one string of ‘economy strength’ that he has been praising, recommending, and advertising as an accomplishment ; and (2) It helps to buy time to prolong his popularity among his base even as he feeds this as profitable information to people.
US – China Trade War is another event that raises the scope for prolonging President Donald Trump’s popularity among his base.
President Donald Trump has been consistently charging China with practices that cause harm to the US economy since the time he announced his candidacy in June/July 2015.
That China has been stealing trade secrets; that China has been coercing technology transfers ; and that China has been subsidising its own firms – all without keeping its commitments has been the US’s main grievance. With a view to bring China to the negotiating table, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs as a punishing measure – first, he hiked the tariffs from 10% to 25% on $ 200 billion worth of Chinese imports ; China retaliated with 25% tariff on $ 60 billion worth of US imports, mainly agricultural sector. The expectation was that China will lose economically and become weak. An additional $ 300 billion on goods will come under tariffs target in case the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping does not materialise with fruitful discussions during the G-20 Conference later in June. Both nations realise that continued cooperation is necessary to prevent rivalry in political and military conflicts. But both remain obstinate without yielding as at present. It makes for the following three scenarios to emerge, develop, and grow each presenting an advantage at the moment to President Donald Trump.
Figure below represents the three scenarios succinctly.
Scenario 1 : US demands China to resolve structural issues ; IP protection ; and market access. China does not act on these but remains firm that it will not make any unilateral change to its policies. This stance does not make any negotiated settlement possible the result of which makes the trade war continue and escalate. This scenario helps prolong the Trade dispute between the two nations impacting globally.
Scenario 2 : Tariff increases cause slowing of US GDP growth ; in the process hurting and harming the country. As part of remedial measures the US will resort to low interest rates possibly followed by Quantitative Easing to lift the stocks and promote growth providing relief to the analysts, stocks, stakeholders, and to the citizens in general. This makes the trade war continuing or escalating without any compulsions from the two sides for a quick settlement. This scenario helps prolong the Trade dispute between the two nations impacting globally.
Scenario 3 : Tariff increases cause panic selling in some sectors bringing with it ‘low confidence’ in general. Importers from both sides may switch suppliers; cultivate and buy from new markets ; or buy from domestic markets even if the cost is high. Chinese manufacturers are already rerouting production to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Taiwan. It works better for Chinese exporters also. This scenario also helps prolong the Trade dispute between the two nations impacting globally.
All the above three scenarios point to a favorable disposition gained by President Donald Trump in terms of his strategy paying its due. The chief reason for this is that most actions/strategies in this respect make their impact felt over long term while on short-term maintaining the status quo or making the people perception better. “Bold and Cautious action is being taken” may even be the verdict of a good section of people.
This also helps the President to tide over his many personal challenges ; embarrassing reactions to his administrative moves on Mueller Report and subpoenas ; the gradually rising challenge to his second term underscored by the growing disenchantment with his leadership ; unpredicted crowd of aspirants to democratic nomination for the 2020 Election getting emboldened ; and the prediction in some quarters of a grave economic distress in late 2019 or early 2020.
It is not known clearly as to when or how a challenge to this mechanism, and by action a level of discomfort and successful opposition to the President will actually emerge as the Democrats are keenly hoping for.
” Dieu avec nous “.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019 – 8.39 p.m. (IST)
Tidbit : ” Leaders seem to do well when they are under attack “.
Tonight’s CNN Town Hall featured three Representatives of Congress in their bid to add youthful drive and energy to the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2020 Election.
The TownHall was held in CNN center at Atlanta, Georgia.
Answers to questions on the Impeachment of the President, and Virginia mass shootings would be the ones the audience and the citizens at large have eagerly scrutinized.
Here’s my brief presentation of the essence of the event.
1. Representative Seth Moulton (D-Mass), a former Marine corps officer, who announced his candidacy on April 22, 2019 is the first. He is a progressive democrat and not a socialist; he is moderate, pro-growth, and fiscally responsible; and he is known for his bipartisanship. Seth Moulton is not registered on the polling aggegator’s site.
Victor Blackwell has been the moderator.
Figure below represents Rep. Seth Moulton’s policy position.
It comprises of the following three elements viz. Gun Control ; Cybersecurity ; and Green New Deal. He supports increased gun control. According to him no civilian should own a military style assault weapon. It is no different than why we outlaw civilian ownership of rockets and landmines. A highly principled stance. He is one of the architects of “Cyber Ready Workforce Act 2018” , a grant program within the Department of Labour to ‘create, implement, and expand registered apprenticeships to Cybersecurity’. It offers certifications and connects participants with businesses to boost federal jobs. He supports Green New Deal which is expected to balance environment and economic inequality in a manner that will benefit the citizens. He supports nuclear energy.
Figure below represents Seth Moulton’s Strategy triad :
It consists of the three important elements of : (a) preserving the core values of Americans; (b) forging unity among Americans; and (c) combating racism. He strongly urged that “a new Voting Right Act” as the imperative in this chaotic circumstances.
While pressing for Impeachment proceedings against the President by the House, he advocated strongly his position to change the Justice Department guidelines that places the sitting President against indictment.
While on the Virginia mass shootings, Seth Moulton pins his faith on not permitting high capacity magazines and suppressors. Effective follow-up of legal mechanisms which permit the purchase of these weapons should be carried out to mark solutions to the problem.
2. Representative Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) announced his candidacy in April 2019.
Representative Tim Ryan became famous when he challenged Speaker Nancy Pelosi to be the leader of House Democrats in December 2016. His view : ” Nancy Pelosi to be replaced by someone from the area(s) that Donald Trump won in 2016. Tim Ryan lost his challenge, however, after Nancy Pelosi supported giving more power to young members.
Poppy Harlow of CNN has been the moderator.
Figure below represents Representative Tim Ryan’s Priorities triad :
It constitutes the three elements of : (a) making America competitive again ; (b) restoring America’s innovation leadership ; and (c) energising and engaging young people. His key emphasis and key reason for contesting is to bring America’s glory back again. In his book titled : “A mindful nation”, he wrote : “If more citizens can reduce stress and increase performance even if only by a little, they will be healthier and more resilient. They’ll be better equipped to face the challenges facing the nation.” To meet this goal he sees the three main pillars of actions in the direction of making America competitive again; restoring America’s innovation leadership; and energising and engaging young people. To me his priorities seem well designed and scripted evoking the highest degree of ‘nationalism’ that in the present day Politics world over is proving to be the chief driver of people enthusiasm and support.
Figure below represents Representative Tim Ryan’s Strategy triad :
It comprises of the three key elements viz. (a) incentivising investments ; (b) a national Strategy on renewables ; and (c) combating corporate concentration.
Representative Tim Ryan does not support impeaching the President but argues firmly that special counsel Robert Mueller Report shows that the President committed Obstruction of Justice.
On Virginia shootings : Tim Ryan, even while not being very sure of restrictions that would have prevented the shootings, favoured as solution ‘Gun Reform’ that doesn’t allow extended magazines and silencers. Background checks are an integral component of reform.
3. Representative Eric Swalwell (D- Calif) announced his candidacy on April 8, 2019
A prolific user of the Social Media, his interviews on MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News due mainly to his part in House Intelligence Committee’s investigation in to Russian interference in elections made him a plain, public, and perceptible figure now. Eric Swalwell is not registered on the polling aggegator’s site.
Jim Sciutto of CNN has been the moderator.
Figure below represents Representative Eric Swalwell’s Work of Time triangle :
It constitutes : (a) Gun Control; (b) Education ; and (c) Renewable Energy. He has been a strong advocate of increased funding for education, and decreased funding for Defense. He also focused on federal stimulus money to create renewable energy jobs. He is a proponent of Gun Control measures, specially, the buyback and ban of military style semi-automatic assault weapons, non-compliance of which will bear prosecution.
Figure below represents Representative Eric Swalwell’s Strategy triad :
It has the following three aspects : (a) Global affirmation ; (b) Trust of Citizens ; and (c) Accelerating Dreams of People. Global affirmation to make sure that allies stand strongly in support of U.S. Trust of Citizens to ensure huge and positive support from people in any fight against misdeed(s). While stressing that college should be able to pay for you, if you work for college, he emphasised that student loans should not constitute the memories of college, but learning process should do. This can only accelerate the realisation of the dreams of Americans.
Representative Eric Swalwell wants to satisfy what he sets as pre requisites for Trump Impeachment clearly : ” (i) Peoples’ understanding, knowledge, and support for the process ; and (ii) Impeachment process should be set in motion only after all avenues of remedial measures are exhausted.
On Virginia shootings : A ban and buyback on assault weapons combined with administrative effort to negotiate up as the Gun Safety majority in America would desire.
General conclusions : (1) Age and military experience are Representative Seth Moulton’s key strengths. (2) Representative Tim Ryan’s deep knowledge, connection, and support for the working class Americans constitute his key strengths. (3) Problems and challenges that young families face, and the community engagement and reaching out to people across the aisle irrespective of party affiliation are Representative Eric Swalwell’s key strengths.
Whether these strengths hold good and true against the many vulnerable odds the three candidates have to make their presence count in the coming days and months will be worth watching.
” Dieu avec nous “
Monday, June 3, 2019 – 9.19 a.m. (IST)
Tidbit : ” Current healthcare system is a disease care system ; a sick care system. ” – Tim Ryan.