” US General Election, November 3 – The Die is Cast ” – November 2, 2020.
US General Election will be held on November 3, 2020.
President Donald Trump’s team seems cautiously optimistic.
Joe Biden’s team seems invincible.
Who gains or who loses is not known now, but nobody will be in doubt.
But a day or two before the election, as now, President Donald Trump’s chances will depend on the following three factors as depicted in the figure below :
Let us consider the three factors : Visibility, Performance, and Leadership.
1. Visibility : A true leader is one who has a large segment of population in terms of age, gender, and social class as dedicated followers. They will want to see the leader’s face, posture, and expressions in realtime in public. What the leader speaks and promises will influence them to think, feel, and make their choice better. President Donald Trump’s visibility, specially, during the last few days in social space is high. In one day, the day before, he had five rallies, each with huge crowds in thousands. In Michigan, he said : ” Two days from now, we are going to win the State of Michigan again “. In Georgia, he said : ” Next year we will see the greatest economic growth in the history of America “. In Florida, he asked : ” Is there any place you would like to be rather than in a Trump rally ?” Everyone will be expecting a new surge in voting.
President Donald Trump has raised his visibility. Whether this will change the minds of voters in his favour is still uncertain.
2. Performance : He has kept the promises he made in 2016 to the people. He mentioned them in his speech in North Carolina yesterday and reiterated moving further on these : ” We are going to cut taxes ; cut regulations ; support police ; defend religious groups and their liberty ; produce more of what you produce now and make it ‘Made in America’ “. He handled the lootings, violent protests, and riots in Kenosha, Minnesota, and Portland with decisiveness even if it fell short of a healing process totally.
President, Donald Trump, is basically a businessman and not a politician. His chief armour in his weaponry for getting people on his side has been his PR (Public Relations) and Sales Pitch striking an unusual but welcome tone not seen generally among politicians and which people found attractive. This made people feel he is genuine. Will they hold the same opinion now is not certain.
His strength (weakness really) also constituted his blunt and candid expressions (good and not so good) about other leaders, opponents, aides, and individuals. His handling of COVID-19 has come in for sharp criticisms and condemnation for his refusal to listen to the advice of Scientists, Doctors, Experts, and Public Health Specialists. His gamble to concentrate more on Economy over Public Health and Safety may have separated him from not just his associates but the general public at large at this critical juncture.
A final word on this (how he scores on this characteristic) will be afforded by the people in the result of the Election.
3. Leadership : ” President Donald Trump is a Leader with little respect for delegation. He is always focused in a way translating his principles and beliefs into actions. His actions will rarely give or point to a leader in control for the analysts, academics, and professionals in management. He is a ‘different’ leader. While some may be tempted to call his style of management in terms of being an authoritarian or even closer to being a dictator, the reality lies in the fact that he is one who would like to “create an identity” that is unique and think of himself as one who is not fit to hold a candle to any other. It is probably an inner desire driven by what many experts may term as ‘egoistic’. This is a factor that seriously clouds his trust among people and his re-election despite some good work on foreign policy, economy, military strength, immigration, and tax benefits.
Willingly or otherwise he has been disruptive and specially in this challenging moment of the pandemic holding firmly to his views without much embracing the general/expert opinions. Public suffered. Credit or blame to whatever happens to people in a term is generally fixed to the leader who held the fort.
Conclusion : The statistics in terms of Coronavirus impact seem aligned with his poll margins and prospects that make his second term a non-starter at this juncture. True, people will decide, but the die has been cast long before the voters enter the numbers on the ballot papers.
The “Curriculum Vitae” (CV) for this election can be written in two words : “Corona Virus” (CV).
” Dieu avec nous”
Monday, November 2, 2020 – 4.49 p.m. (IST)
Tidbit : ” It is Election uncertainty that will be in the lips of everyone “.