Archive | January 2023

” Expectations High, Excitement Low ” – January 3, 2022.

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Justice BV Nagarathna, sole dissenter.

Demonetisation verdict by SC finally puts the lid on the matter that has been dragging for nearly 6 years with feet and body moving in different directions. All petitions have been rejected. Constitution bench headed by Justice SA Nazeer, Justice AS Bopanna, Justice BR Gavai, Justice V Ramasubramanian, and Justice Ms BV Nagarathna pronounced the judgement. Nothing exacting from the court’s analysis of the decision making process. It was a clear endorsement of the action of the Government and its decision making process. Justice Ms BV Nagarathna, however, called the decision, ” unlawful and vitiated”. But she also added that, ” Demonetisation has been implemented with noble intention but the legality of interpretation remains questionable “.

Her disagreement lay in (1) RBI not exercising independent application of mind ( Full work being carried out in just 24 hours ); (2) the power of Government executed by notification and not by plenary legislation ( Full responsibility is what is missing here ) ; and (3) opinion given by RBI cannot be construed as a recommendation under sec 26 (2) of the RBI Act. For those whose agony and anguish of Demonetisationwas inexpressible this should provide some solace and comfort.

I record my management perspective on this here :

Figure 1 below presents the ‘management perspective’ for Demonetisation .

Mission : Financial Security, Financial Stability, and Financial Peace.

Goal : Overall peace, Security, Elimination of Terrorist Financing , Stabilisation of Economic Growth, and Path for modernization/digital India.

Objectives : For India it lies in abandonment of prevailing high denomination currency ; It initiated parity with many developed nations ; and acceleration of digital initiatives accrued.

Policies : Meetings/Consultations between Government and RBI ; Committed decision making.

Direction : Develop good understanding between the Government and RBI ; build relationships with industry and party affiliates; Continue peace discussions ; Exchange information to make it as far as being transparent ; Emphasise Government’s commitment to the security of Indian regime; and I portray this action as the beginning of a new beginning.

Control : A team to oversee outcomes/progress on Demonetisation ; Recognise Government’s lead role with RBI in fructification of the program ; Garner support from leaders, experts, analysts, Citizens and identify significant role for agencies ; and to elicit positive acknowledgement globally.

Perhaps a test in the direction of a humongous task likely to last for 5 years with degrees of pain looming large over how long can this be sustained without any turmoil.

It was, nevertheless, felt that it was an authentic event of more than just common interest.

PM, Modi, held his head firmly on his shoulders seeking people’s approval for this action.

Figure 2 below depicts the elements of Success and Failure of the decision of Demonetisation.

PM had set his heart on a positive outcome from his action. It can be termed a legacy accomplishment ; enhancing national image ; and the likely better performance and consequences of raising the reputation.

This is not an annual event but one with capacity to extend for a long period of time into the future.

Three aspects need mention here :

1. ” One Vision ” : Vision set clearly ; embodies the safety and security of the nation ; provide more strength in key growth sectors ; and presenting its military strength nationally.

2. ” One Nation ” : Key national goal of pride, safety, and security to be achieved ; Sense of all Citizens belonging to one nation to emerge.

3. ” World View ” : Entire world has been watching the sequences of our actions and paying attention to their outcomes ; Action plans going forward and opinions held by leaders ;. Obstacles tackled ; Nature of integration and cooperation accelerated in stages ensuring the Central theme and focus of a safe future for the common good of all Citizens in our nation. 4. What happened after the 2000 dot com crash, 2008 Financial disaster when investors had to face the words of greedy managers breaking their promises ; problems investors had to face to recover their wealth ; turmoil followed in relationships, personal and social ; and a loss of confidence were seen in altered ways like concern, anger, frustration, rhetorics and shook with psychological impacts leading even to fear psychosis for a time.

5. Shaking things up as remedied regulations and punishment to the catastrophically erring (though it takes time) to some extent restored people’s confidence. A great turnaround in politics is not as simple as the businesses requiring time, effort, and resources not just in huge measure but crossing unimagined hurdles of uncertainty ; multiple social welfare issues to be addressed as time moves on ; challenges to co-ordinate the efforts ; and need to deflect attempts to interfere by other powers with biased intents.

Figure 3 above provides an analysis of the impact of the decision to close the petitions. This aspect has not been dealt with by analysts so far and the representative figure can be a good model. The probability of serious dissent can be gauged based on past occurrences.

The individual chances for each of the subevent laid out in the figure can be obtained in fractions. A good opportunity to apply AI. The figure indicates that the chances of a serious consequence is very small and insignificant, though some disturbances can’t be ruled out.

No blame or excuse management is purposed here.

The judgement by the SC will be remembered by everyone if the safety and security of nation is ensured as envisaged in the Mission. A working forum to constantly track the scenario from now on is one that cannot be dismissed. We may well be starting off on a new footing. It will increase confidence even if lots more effort can be made thereafter independently and jointly than when the decision was made first on November 8, 2016 . There are, however, measures possible if a turmoil sets in spelling dangers to the nation and Citizens. It now depends on Emotional Declarations which I foresee will be negligible. At this juncture there may not be any urgent need for immediate actions.

Will every citizen share the optimism is the question now.

Tidbit : ” Lawyers will do anything to win a case, sometimes they even tell the truth “. – Patrick Murray.

Tuesday , January 3, 2022. 4.00 p.m.