” Immigration puzzle – A Diagnostic Account ” – July 30, 2018.

 

Donald Trump and Giuseppe Conte address the press on July 30, 2018, after their meeting in the White House.

          ” US  President Donald Trump cited Italy’s hardline immigration policies as reason for PM  Giuseppe Conte’s visit to White House on July 30,  2018.”

          The inference I draw from his words is that both Donald Trump and Giuseppe Conte view the  “migrant crisis”  prevailing not just in Europe and America but all over the world as a precursor to a much larger problem unpredictable at this moment. 

          If globalisation has shrunk the  “cyber-borders” while promoting tech, people engagement, and prosperity;  it has also shrunk the  “physical-borders”  enabling and accelerating the physical movement of people making time and distance almost irrelevant.

          As any new technology brings with it some unanticipated evils, migration of people also brings some threats with it – many with potential to tilt the balance of social harmony.

          It is now a highly endowed political tool to weild deftly for winning elections.

          The spat between Republicans and Democrats over illegal immigration may just be the tip of the iceberg to a huge problem with potential to alarm the locals and even endanger the security situations in border areas.   

          While many may hold the view that immigrants stealing the jobs of nationals as the main problem,  Trump’s view fits to a good extent with our former Deputy PM,  LK Advani’s characterisation of it being a  “Security Threat”.

          If the  US  is affected by its long and varied observations of people pouring in from Mexico,  India has been embroiled in a migrant crisis with inflow of people from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar  (recently)  mainly since the 1950s. 

          If the  US  holds the perception that the migrants tilt the balance of vote politics regionally and even nationally,  India too experiences the change and trials of life of its citizens economically and politically, in specially West Bengal.

          If the  US  perceived the need for strict border control for the good of locals,  India also shares similar perceptions while passing through the course of events which affect its citizens.

          While a majority of migrants are economic refugees, it is not completely free from anti-national elements. There are more than 29  m  illegal immigrants from Bangladesh alone in India. Most people settle in West Bengal, Assam,  ..  ..  and even have moved to cities like Bombay, Delhi, Bangalore  ..   ..  to Kerala where wages are low.

          The problems caused due to illegal migration are manifold  :

          (a)  Extreme difficulties to police in checking/tracking the real influx;

          (b)  Anti-national activities take origin, sprout, and spread to different areas in the country;

          (c)  Insecurity, panic, and even fear psychosis caused to locals (Sinha report);

          (d)  Anxiety and tension to locals even while causing a change in demographic patterns among residents;

          (e)  Infiltration of smugglers posing dangers;

          (f)  Risk by terrorists who use these immigrants as couriers and agents to carry out Anti-national activities.

          Options available to check illegal immigration are detailed below :

          –  (a)  Allow the present status to continue (this means no action which is not good);

          –  (b)  Keep the border completely open (this means granting a free licence which is dangerous);

         –  (c)  Deport all illegal immigrants while strengthening border security ( likely to cause politically induced resistance eventhough it seems logical and to an extent practical);

          –  (d)  Make illegal immigrants natural citizens ( long cumbersome process to track all; and conditions need to be formalised );

          –  (e)  Negotiated settlements and assistance to the poor nation for growth (good, but cannot solve the problem fully through life).

          So what is needed is a  judicious combination of measures applicable to individual nation(s),  according to the prevalent conditions in time.

          “Negotiated settlements”  and  “border fence erection”  constituted India’s mode and rule of accomplishing normal characteristics of the lives of people.

          –  Nehru-Liaquat  pact of 1950 sent 6 lakh migrants back to East Pakistan;

          –  Indira Gandhi- Mujibur Rehman  pact of 1972 caused  7  m  to return to Bangladesh. It permitted only those who entered prior to March 1971, while others were deported;

          –  Assam accord of 1985 (Rajiv Gandhi’s) provided for building a fence along Assam-Bangladesh border;

          –  Atal Behari Vajpayee government in 1998 awarded the construction of Indo-Bangladesh border barrier to stop migrants and illegal trade along the border.

          In Europe,  Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy, Denmark, Greece. ..  took serious measures to prevent undocumented migrants with some of these countries erecting a razor wire fence along the border.

          What has been worrying the US  and  European nations is the  ‘ trafficking of fake documents for ISIL’.  According to the Guardian report in 2017  ISIL had been paying the smugglers fees upto  $  2000 to child migrants to  ‘radicalise’  children for the group. Nearly 88300  children reported as missing run the risk of such radicalisation.

          Economic migration is beneficial and is also crucial to the growing labour market of the host nation –  according to the report by OECD.  And the report also adds that such migration is not the cause for disrupting the nation’s  GDP.

          Hence, it occurs to my mind that a 4 step process to tackle the problem may be in order :

          1.  Strict law enforcement and checking to detect illegal immigrants;

          2.  Increase border security agents/officers/personnel;

          3.  Use technology to monitor border ( Towers with sensors and drones to spot and counter movements);

          4.  Build a wall/fence along the border.

          Conclusion  : 

          Solving the problem of illegal immigration is now a priority to most nations due to the increasing political, social, and judiciary concerns. It is also the responsibility of every nation to safeguard it’s citizens and ensure for them a safe, secure, and spirited life. The above details in this piece are just diagnostic in nature to advance specific efforts through studies and procedures arriving at a better and practical outcome.

 

          Assignment. :

          Question 1.  Is there an universally accepted solution to the problem of migrant crisis ?

          Answer  :  No,  beyond my ken.

          Question 2.  Who is right and who is wrong?

          Answer  :  Everybody is right and everybody needs to do more.

          Question  3.  What is the best that can be done ?

          Answer  :   An  AI  study may probably help identify the best solution. Proprietary or choices.

          Try as long as you do not ask me to do it.

 

     “Dieu avec nous”

     Tuesday,  July  31,  2018  –  12. 59 p.m. (IST)

     Tidbit  :   Dominant terms used for immigrants  :   “Germany and Sweden use the term ‘refugee or asylum seekers’.   Italy and UK use the term ‘migrant’.   Spain  uses the term  ‘immigrant’. “

 

            

 

” Imran Khan on course to Create a New Pakistan ” – July 27, 2018.

 

 

Imran Khan

 

          This is the decade of new (first time) leaders in National Governance. Narendra Modi (India),  Donald Trump (U.S.A.),  Rodrigo Duterte (Philippines),  Emmanuel Macron (France),  Justin Trudeau (Canada),   Moon Jae-in (South Korea),  Giuseppe Conte (Italy),  Jacinda Ardern(New-Zealand),  Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic (Croatia),.  ..  ..  ..

          Imran Khan, 65, of Pakistan is the latest in this star-spangled horizon of exceptional individuals. Unseating the three time PM, Nawaz Sharif, Imran seized the prizable symbol of Pakistan (post of PM) that he has been striving for nearly 22 years since launching his Pakistan Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI) party. A reward worthy of recognition for his endurance in Politics. As I write this, he has 114 elected seats out of the 137 needed for a simple majority, but this will not fail his taking charge as PM of Pakistan. He has allies and independents to support him.

          Most of the first time leaders who have acquired the positions of President or Prime Minister have been catapulted to power largely due to the apprehensive forebodings and an overwhelming distrust of the previous occupants (leaders). Imran Khan is no exception to this factor.

          –  Imran Khan’s promise is a “New Pakistan”;

          –  He promises to convert the PM house into an educational institution. (First time any State Leader has promised this, to my knowledge);

          –  He wants to develop better relations with India. ” If you take one step toward us, we will take two steps toward you”. He wants to hold constructive talks on Kashmir;

          –  He seeks to build mutually beneficial relationship with U.S.A. and Afghanistan;

          –  He wants to simulate China’s poverty alleviation and anticorruption policies;

          –  He wants to build a reconciliation role in Mid-east;

          –  “If God wills, we will set an example” – he avers.

          Imran Khan’s above words after sensing victory in the election (held on July 25, 2018)  reflect his genuine desire/eagerness to adopt a clear sense of purpose and to bring about a positive change in the economic and social good for the people of Pakistan.

          That this new government is willing to make fresh initiatives – political, economic, and social –  fashioning an impression of leading the nation on the right track and away from the perceived faults of the previous governments is common and usual.

          Rewards for these initiatives are three fold:  (a)  building strong relationships and forging new partnerships for peace, security, and prosperity;  (b)  economic growth coupled with industrial progress affording a new competing standard nationally and internationally;  and  (c)  enhancing the living standards of people as well as sustaining social harmony.  All noble ideals, no doubt.

          What will, however, be closely watched is the ‘energy’  that Imran Khan can bring to the task of honest and transparent governance, avoiding the manifold distractions inherent in Pakistani Leadership (policies) while strengthening growth and development of the nation. Analysts, media, and people will be watching keenly the kind of Coaching that Imran Khan lends to his ministers/aides/associates, as he did to the players during his glorious cricketing career. Together, these two factors will go a long way in transforming the “culture” of constructive and  productive march to progress and prosperity.

          I hold the strong belief that Imran Khan’s leadership will hinge on the “people space”  of the citizens. That he has been extremely popular since his cricketing days adds to this belief.

          I am also reminded of the ‘training program’ for the new legislators that the Indian PM conducted in Chandigarh in 2014,  within a couple of months of taking charge, that revealed his desire for details, analysis, and interpretation of issues  –  major and minor  –  impacting the national growth and development. It is worthy of emulation.

          That sports, music, and entertainment composites can unite people and elevate their spirit of comradeship is too well known.

          Imran Khan has the proven record of a great cricketer/leader affording lessons in leadership – unearthing and nurturing the varied talents of Wasim Akram,  Waqar Younis,  Mudassar Nazar,  Inzamam-ul-Haq,  Haroon Rashid even while raising the bar of his leadership by successfully handling the tempestuous Javed Miandad. He remained an accomplished Captain, Coach, and Mentor all rolled into one.

          This is what made each of the above cricketers under his tutelage a legend in their own way.

          Imran Khan can also benefit from the coaching recipe offered by Doug Pederson, Coach of Philadelphia Eagles Head. He advocated four principles for a successful approach to ‘culture’ of his team/organisation.  (1)  Create Energy everyday;  (2)  Eliminate Distractions;  (3)  Fear Nothing;  and  (4)  Attack everything ( i.e. get better everyday ).  Doug  Pederson created a winning team/organisation. Will Imran create a winning Pakistan ?  What is good for teams and organisations can be good for politicians too.

          Finally to the negative :  Pakistan army has often been held for its overbearance and imperiousness capable of laying a stymie as the history would reveal. Will the army be a stumbling block or a soaring stimulant under Imran Khan is what everyone (in the world) would like to follow. This is what will also decide the citizens of Pakistan to accept (or reject) what Imran Khan is about to take on from now. 

          History has, nevertheless, given an opportunity to Pakistan to shed all its past misgivings and turn the corner.

 

     ” Dieu avec nous “

     Friday,  July 27,  2018  –  11.09 p.m. (IST)

     Tidbit :  ” Leadership is the art of getting others want to do something you’re convinced should be done”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

” Rising Newcomer in New York Democratic Primary – June 26, 2018 “

 

          New York delivered a ‘first’  with the history making election primary in its 14th District today.

          28 year old Alexandria Oscasio-Cortez  defeated the 10 term giant Joe Crowley, 56, in New York’s 14th District Democratic Primary.  Oscasio-Cortez secured 57% votes, a good margin.

          Joe Crowley :  56 year old Joseph Crowley has been in Congress since 1999.  He is the No. 4 Democrat.  A stalwart progressive on most issues.   Has close ties to Wall Street.  Widely expected to be the party’s next House Leader.

          Alexandria  Oscasio-Cortez :  28  year old Oscasio-Cortez born to working class parents in Bronx.  Mother is Puerto-Rican.  Father from Bronx.  Oscasio-Cortez has been former staffer  to the late Sen Ted Kennedy. She has also been a former Bernie Sanders volunteer.  

          Oscasio-Cortez ran on  Medicare for all;   a  federal job guarantee;   getting tough on Wall Street;   gun control;   ending private prisons;  abolishing ICE;   and investment in post hurricane  Puerto Rico. These were the premises and promises on which she fought stubbornly.

          Many will be positively surprised though the magnitude of victory cannot be termed as a complete sweep.    

          But  it certainly sends a scathing message to the Democratic Party that there could be changes in November 2018.

          First, It shows newcomers, political neophytes, can win.

          Second, it is a sign of a new Democratic Party unfolding, with fresh and more aggressive definition of a democrat;  and

          Third,  it is a reflection upon the performance of the party and it’s strategy as an opposition.

          Does it signify ‘loss of confidence’ in the present leadership of the party ?

          It should be noted that these elections are fought without much support from party organisation, hence the viability of candidates is the single factor that plays a significant role. These primary elections are also not fought on the premise that candidates in contest should possess charisma or popularity, even if they contribute to an extent. That the candidates need not have to transmit his/her popularity puts the contest itself to be one without any insurmountable obstacles.

          The election, nevertheless, points to some corrections :

          –  whether the party is on the right track now with its strategies of the last 18 months as opposition;

          –  whether the party does not need career politicians;   and

          –  whether the party needs to be more concerned about the next generation instead of just the next election.

          This election may well be an indication of a new electoral movement on the part of the Democratic Party should similar results show up in other places too.

          Have the voters got it right will be known on November 6,  2018.   But this election will certainly have a public debate in New York that will last till after November 6.

 

     ” Dieu avec nous “

     Wednesday,  June  27,  2018  –  10.09 a.m. (IST)

     Tidbit :. ” Changing Strategy management is key to overcome obstacles “.

“President Donald Trump at 72 – June 14, 2018.

 

“Aiming to secure the nation from aggressors who intrude;

Aiming to preserve and strengthen the safety and security of citizens;

Aiming to extract fair share of contributions from associates;

Aiming to promote rapid modernisation of military and economy.”

 

” Bridging the differences between North and South Korea;

Bridging the differences between North Korea and Western world;

Bridging the differences between the secluded and the open, transparent;

Bridging the differences between the warmonger and peacelover.”

 

“Credit for the good times to live beyond conflict and confrontation;

Credit for all things to bring peace and prosperity;

Credit for pursuing a stay awake plan and not a stay away plan;

Credit for making the economy registering a song;”

 

“Defending your brothers, sons, daughters, grandchildren – American citizens;

Defending nation from without, with clear security from within;

Defending with your guns without destroying self from tax;

Defending to shake the citizens’  souls for glory to emerge;”

 

“Economy and not extravaganza, his mantra;

Economy stable with spending prudent;

Economy with thinking of future and where citizens could be;

Economy strong even at the middle of one’s wallet.”

 

” Dieu  avec  nous “

Thursday,  June  14,  2018  –  12.29 a.m. (IST)

Tidbit :  ” Successful man with seven senses – touch, taste, sight, smell, hearing, horse, and common”.

 

           

 

 

 

” Donald Trump – Kim Jong Un Summit Meeting; _ June 12, 2018 – Excitement Ever High, Expectations Ever Low ” – June 12, 2018.

 

            What must have been felt belonging to dreams only by anyone, big or small, has happened and become ‘real’.

            President Donald Trump and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un met with smiles, handshakes, and pleasant sense of touch and feel, at 9 a.m. (Singapore local time) this morning.

            North Korea, known to report events usually days after they happen, has been relaying at home the minute to minute events of its leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore; his landing, his stay in hotel, his side show – a night stroll in Singapore  …  …  … in almost realtime that expresses the CONFIDENCE that this leader and his people have on this meet.  Has Kim Jong Un won even before the first ball has been bowled?

            Adoption of new technologies in Society takes time;  but we also see and experience the time getting reduced/constricted with every new new technology.

Electricity took a little more than 50 years;

Cellphones took little more than 10 years;

Smartphones took little more than 5years;

Electric vehicles took more than 2 years;

            Diplomacy tech (U.S.A. and North Korea) took just 4 months to get adopted – if the summit is a success – if any statement, communique, or declaration gets released formally soon will be any indication of a successful meeting between two leaders known for their ‘unpredictable stance’  on issues.

            It is learnt just now  (before the working lunch and after their one-on-one meet for 48 minutes) that President Donald Trump said : “We will be successful;  We will co-operate;  Summit going very very good”.  Kim Jong Un said  :  “A prelude to Peace”.

            

          Here I present a ‘management framework’ for Summit Commitment when released. Figure below represents the framework :

 

1.   Mission  :  World Peace Overall.

2.    Goal       :   Peace,  Security, Nuclear Disarmament,  Economic growth,  Modernisation.

3.     Objectives  :   For Donald Trump these lie in Complete abandonment of North Korea’s nuclear program;  (CVID);   For Kim Jong Un these lie in Parity with big nations;  North Korea’s economic growth;  Modernisation of North Korea.

4.     Policies   :     For Donald Trump it is “Safe America,  Safe North Korea, and Safe World”.   For Kim Jong Un it is “Safe North Korea, Safety of self/his rule, Safety of his people”.

5.     Program.  :  One-on-one meet;  followed by meeting between delegations of U.S.A.  and   North Korea.

6.     Direction   :   Understanding one another well;  build strong relationships;  continue peace discussions; formulate action plans with specific timelines;  exchange information and make them transparent.

7.     Control.   :    A team to oversee progress on actions from the two nations;  Recognise South Korea’s lead role in fructification of the Historic  Summit;   Identify a significant role for South Korea in all future participation following the Summit;  Garner enough support from countries of the World for the action plans conceived after the summit meeting.

          

          

            ” A commitment to the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for security of Kim Jong Un’s  regime” – is finally the signed document.  President Donald Trump declares a new era of relationship between the two nations.

            For common observers like us it appears that this meeting is probably the beginning of a new beginning;  no specific details either in terms of what denuclearisation really means;  but perhaps just a step in the direction of a humongous task likely to last for years or even decades with degrees of uncertainty looming large over how long either of the two can sustain the written commitment in letter and spirit.

         In conclusion,  Is this something that has not been accomplished ever by any President as opined in some circles?   Whether this meeting will mould the future?   Only time can tell. 

          For now this is an authentic event of more than just common interest, nevertheless, I feel.

 

     ” Dieu  avec  nous “

      Tuesday,  June 12, 2018  –  9.59 a.m. (IST)

      Tidbit   :   “The hard work will come after the Summit Meeting”.  Donald  Trump.

 

 

 

” Donald Trump – Kim Jong Un Summit Meeting, June 12, – Count not the Chickens before they are Hatched ” June 8, 2018.

 

          Amidst the public knowledge affording strong and conclusive evidence of the fact that North Korea has a history of not abiding by the promises made anytime before,  the much anticipated Summit Meeting that was cancelled on May 24, 2018, but revived  8  days later,  will now be held in Singapore on June 12, 2018  at  9 a.m. (local time).

          The Summit Meeting will be held in Sentosa’s  Capella Hotel.

          Reactions and speculations from planners, administrators, media, and analysts still remain wavering.

          President Donald Trump’s inner voice seems to be warning him of ‘no major breakthroughs’ out of the Summit.

          The sticking point, no doubt, is the CVID  condition ( Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible, Disarmament of North Korea’s nuclear program/Arsenals).

          U.S.A.,  South Korea,  Japan,  Canada,  Britain,  Australia,  and  France hold a coordinated submission  i.e.  (CVID).

          North Korea is not expected to call a halt to its nuclear ambitions.  Also,  having already caught his hare in terms of legitimacy from President Donald Trump’s acceptance to share the discussion table in Singapore,  Kim Jong Un holds his head firmly on his shoulders to seek more concessions from the U.S.A.,  even as Donald Trump is harping on the one string,  i.e.  CVD.

          South Korea is optimistic.  South Koreans in Singapore hope that the meet will be a “security breakthrough”  on Korean Peninsula.  Japan is concerned about the abductions;  breach of airspace and associated threats.

          The outcome of the Summit, in a sense,  may well depend upon whether U.S.A.,  South Korea, and Japan stand together or not.

          Figure  1.  below depicts the elements of success and failure of the Summit Meeting in the form of a flowchart.

          Figures 2 –  4  below suggest a simplistic representation of an Artificial Intelligence application to the diplomatic Summit Meeting. Figure 2 deals with the  ‘Severity’  of the tests;  Figure 3 deals with the ‘Impact’ ;  and. Figure 4  deals with the ‘ Social Perception’.

 

 

          

  

 

          President Donald Trump has set his heart on a positive outcome from the Summit Meeting.  A legacy achievement;  enhanced national image;  and the likely better performance in the mid term elections (November 6, 2018),  notwithstanding,  should the meet fail, it can spell serious trouble with even unpleasant consequences of staining his  reputation furthermore.

          Path to normalisation,  and future (even if prolonged) discussions on relationships may well be the crux of a “joint statement” at the end of the Summit Meeting. This may well be in order given the frequent internal and external uncertainties that shrouded the meet since February 2018.

          Will two unpredictable leaders signalling a change in the attitude at the end of the Summit Meeting (this may be the real outcome finally) constitute a great feat is what observers cogitate now.

 

     ” Dieu  avec  nous “

     Friday,  June  8,  2018   –    6. 39 p.m. (IST).

     Tidbit  :   ” Make a Spoon or Spoil a Horn ?”

 

” Donald Trump – Kim Jong Un , Summit Meeting, June 12, 2018 ” _ May 29, 2018.

 

          

          Events relating to the Korean Peninsula are shaping at a rate of knots signalling a potential breakthrough in partnerships and relationships between nation(s)  that has been harbouring overbearing and insolent ambition(s) to paint itself as the most powerful of all nations (North Korea); and those terrified and fearstricken with a sense of uncertainty/unpredictability to the consequences in the near term and long term.

          North Korean participation in the Winter Olympics in February 2018, however, set the tone for easing tensions in the region.

          After months of treating insults and nuclear threats with North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un,  U.S.  President, Donald Trump, agreed in early March to a proposed summit sometime later. At that time it was speculated that the summit will likely be cancelled once or twice before actually taking place.

          White House confirmed on March 8, 2018, .the proposed meeting between leaders of North Korea and   U.S.  

          President Donald Trump tweeted on May 10, 2018,  ” the highly anticipated meeting between Kim Jong Un and myself will take place in Singapore on June12th. We’ll both try to make it  a very special moment for World Peace !” 

           An InterKorean summit took place on April 27,  2018,  in Panmunjom (North Korea) where South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, and North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un,  agreed to end the Korean War before the end of the year.

         On May 8, President Donald Trump announced his decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal. There have been views expressed for and against this influencing the process of the June 12,  summit meeting.

          On May 9, 2018,  U.S.  Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, returned with three captive Americans from North Korea;  and Donald Trump thanked Kim Jong Un saying he strongly believes that Kim wants to reach an agreement on denuclearising the Korean Peninsula. “We are starting off on a new footing. This is a wonderful thing that he released the folks early”, said Donald Trump. He also believed that Kim wanted to bring North Korea into the real World; and had high hopes for their planned meeting which would be the first between a serving U.S. President and a North Korean leader. ” My proudest achievement will be – this is part of it – when we denuclearise the entire Peninsula”,  Donald Trump averred.

  • North Korean nuclear site in Punggye-ri demolished on May 24.

           On May 24,  2018,  North Korea discarded the Punggye-ri nuclear site ensuring transparency of the suspension of nuclear tests. Media from U.K.;  Russia;  China;  and U.S. were invited to the ceremony of demolition of the nuclear site. But  8  South Korean journalists were excluded in protest against an exercise that South Korea engaged in with the U.S. military. On May 15, 2018, North Korea cited this violation and threatened to cut off the Summit. North Korea felt that its closing the Punggye-ri site was a positive move ahead of the Summit and the military exercise jeopardised that gesture. North Korea added that, “sabre rattling and dialogue cannot go together”. North Korea also boasted about its nuclear strength.

           U.S.  officially backed out of the Summit on May 24, 2018,  citing the tremendous anger and open hostility, and North Korea’s self boasting of nuclear strength to the detriment of other nations’  safety. “World is losing a great opportunity for peace”,  said Donald Trump.

           Within a day, (on May 25, 2018),  President Donald Trump reversed course while saying that he still kept the Summit options open, a change influenced possibly by the conciliatory tone of North Korean leader that the Summit objective of peace is important.

 

Meeting between Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un on May 26.

           On May 26, 2018,  there was a surprise meeting between South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, and North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, during which they agreed that the North Korea – U.S.  Summit must be held.

          Sung Kim,  former U.S.  ambassador to South Korea, is leading an American delegation (with Pentagon official, Randall Schriver;  and the Korean expert on the White House National Security Council, Allison Hooker) to meet with Choe Son-hui, the North Korean Vice Foreign Minister (May 28 & 29) at Tongilgek, North’s building in Ponmanjum, where the truce suspending the 1950-1953 Korean War was signed.

           About 30 staffers led by Joe Hagin, Deputy White House Chief of Staff, from both the White House and the State Department will meet with Korean counterparts to make preparations for the Summit in Singapore – said White House Press secretary, Sarah Sanders on May 26, 2018.

           Why and what the Summit for ?   U.S. demands complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program. Pyongyang rejected unilateral disarmament and has always talked in terms of denuclearising of the Korean Peninsula. That is that Washington should remove its troops from South Korea, and withdraw its so called nuclear umbrella of deterrence from South Korea and Japan.

           Kim Jong Un  has not offered anything significant on denuclearising or any other concessions for U.S. to finally agree to the Summit.

           White House officials feel that the success of the Summit could prop up Trump’s approval ratings;  place him at a highly respected level;  shield him against ongoing investigations;  and help Republicans in their mid term elections.

           Summit meeting and fulfillment of its goals are a long process (in terms of years, Iran deal negotiations took more than 2 years). This meeting may well be like the conference attendees leaving with more information;  little more networking;  little more confidence;  with lots more effort to be made thereafter independently and jointly than when they took part in the first meet. This probably at best can be called ‘update’ and green signal to proceed with talks and techniques learnt in the meet/conference.

           Will this be (if and when held) a less than purposeful summit?  Both parties would not like to lose their hold and say in the Summit discussions. This is also not any annual event unlike in business, but one with capacity to extend for years into the future. Both stand to benefit by the deal. Three key aspects need mention here.

          1.   “One  Vision ” :  Both parties have their vision set clearly. For the U.S. it is complete denuclearisation of North Korea so that threat to the U.S. as well as the World at large are kept at bay. For DPRK it is extracting enough concessions from the U.S. and others (Other trade partners in the years ahead) to grow and strengthen North Korean economy;  strength in key growth sectors;  and increasing the living standards of its citizens even while preserving its military strength nationally.

          2.   ” One Nation”  :   Both parties have their key national goals to meet. For the U.S. it is ensuring safety and security of its citizens, besides the personal success of the President conferring, (a) a legacy achievement;  (b) enhanced image with higher approval ratings;  and (c)  help the party in mid term elections. For DPRK the benefits are similar. The meet will spell for Kim Jong Un (a) an accomplishment that the nation can be proud of;  (b)  enhanced image nationally;  and (c,)  help promote North Korea’s growth trajectory.

          3.   What will be more significant is that the entire world is paying attention to the Summit and it’s outcome; and what opinions they will hold;  and what they will say when asked about post-summit priorities;  action plan for going forward;  the possible obstacles that can emerge and how they can be tackled;  possible nature of integration and cooperation between countries accelerating the Summit plan;  the central theme and focus of a safe future for the common good of the two nations and the world.

           Just about 4 to 6 months ago, the entire world was angered, concerned, and shocked at the rhetorics coming from the Presidents of the two nations (following a succession of missile and nuclear tests by DPRK), the people all over the world were losing faith in peace and security – a setting that I’m tempted to compare with the financial disaster of 2008 and its impact,  when investors had to face the words of greedy managers breaking their promises;  the problems that investors had to face to recover their wealth;  and the turmoil that followed in relationships, personal and social. The net result was a loss of confidence;  a trend that suspects the assertions and promises of leaders/managers;  and ultimately leading to fear psychosis. The psychological impact was much worse than the financial loss.

          Shaking up things as regulations;  oversight;  and punishment to the erring helped restore people confidence, and bring back growth to normal. The two leaders, President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un face a task which is similar but with dangerous consequences.

          Turnaround in Politics is not as simple as in business, requiring time, effort, and resources not just in huge measure but crossing unimagined hurdles of uncertainty;  multiple issues to be addressed as time moves on;  challenges to co-ordinate the effort;  need to deflect attempts to interfere by other powers with biased interests;  the willingness of the concerned nations to make meaningful contributions to the Summit goals and to prepare  the World for a new Global Structure dismantling the existing troubled order.

           The two leaders have a lot at stake to make the structure of the Summit to work first.

           The rhythm and pace of the Summit (if held on June 12) from the time a possibility surfaced in February/March 2018 have been so swift with a few surprises and apprehensions along the way,  that to make it finally come alive with well organised and structured discussions will be a task that will ever be remembered should the final outcome can make the safety and security of nations better by even an incremental step ahead.

           (a)   It may be essential to constitute a ‘Working Forum’  combining members from the U.S.,  North Korea, and South Korea for follow up actions and collaboration.

          (b)   What is needed is to stimulate the practical and ambitious commitments of DPRK leader for the complete denuclearisation. A clear view of the observations, comments, and opinions held by a large number of nations (mostly negative) of the World be provided/presented to him to bring about an attitudinal change in him.

           (c)   Working Forum to constantly track the commitments made during the Summit. Devise a mechanism to verify the claims of North Korea in abandoning its nuclear program vis-a-vis their commitments and the steps in detail. It needs also to provide answers to all questions that emerged prior to the Summit irrespective of the participating nations within a month or two.

          The above points will help take the Summit to a higher level of success with potential to make it a memorable (historic) event in Politics even while the observers including all the people will describe whether they remain optimistic about the Summit. Are you optimistic?

       “Dieu avec nous”

      Monday,   May 28,  2018 –  11.59 p.m. (IST)

        Tidbit:  ” Complete freezing of North Korea’s nuclear program is what the U.S.  wants”.